Allen vs Duncan: Two Rising Middleweights, One Title Shortcut

The Octagon trades Salt Lake City for the Meta APEX this Saturday, and the headliner is one of the more intriguing matchups October has offered: Brendan Allen, the #4 middleweight, against surging Brit Christian Leroy Duncan. Allen walks in on a three-fight winning streak, most recently grinding out a Fight of the Night unanimous decision over Edmen Shahbazyan. His record sits at 27-7, built largely on the mat — 14 of those wins are submissions.

Duncan has climbed faster than almost anyone at 185. Back-to-back decisions over Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier stretched his streak to five and vaulted the Gloucester man into the top 10, earning him his first UFC main event. A win here doesn't just extend the run — it drops him squarely into the title conversation.

A Fight That Could Go Either Way

The read on this one is simple: where does it take place? Allen is a submission artist by trade but genuinely doesn't mind a kickboxing match, which makes him dangerous everywhere. Duncan brings varied, high-level striking and sharp footwork. If "All In" decides to wrestle, the early grappling exchanges will dictate everything. Worth noting — Allen is fighting backwards in the rankings for the second time this year, which tells you he cares more about stacking wins than guarding his spot.

The Co-Main And Beyond

Loopy Godinez headlines the supporting cast against Brazilian Ketlen Souza at strawweight. Now in her sixth UFC year, the 33-year-old Godinez hasn't lost to an unranked opponent since 2021. Souza arrives on a two-fight tear, capped by a first-round knockout of Ariane Carnelossi in June that moved her to 4-2 at 115 pounds in the promotion. This is a measuring-stick fight: we know where Godinez sits, so it's all about whether Souza belongs in the mix.

Elsewhere, two 10-2 bantamweights collide in Malcolm Wellmaker and Otari Tanzilovi, both hunting momentum. Wellmaker, once tagged a top prospect at 10-0, has dropped two straight and relocated to American Top Team to rebuild. Tanzilovi is still chasing his first UFC win after narrow and not-so-narrow losses to the only two legit opponents he's faced.

The sleeper is Julius Walker against veteran Gerald Meerschaert, who steps up to light heavyweight for the first time in over a decade. Meerschaert, 38, owns the UFC middleweight records for most submission wins (11) and most finishes (12), but he's riding a five-fight skid after a weight miss in Perth. Between them, Walker and Meerschaert have gone the distance only 11 times across 69 pro fights — so someone's almost certainly getting finished. That's the kind of math that sells a prelim.