Colby Covington Says Carlos Prates Is Makhachev's Easiest Fight Yet

Colby Covington has an opinion, which is roughly as surprising as the sun rising. This time it's about Islam Makhachev's welterweight reign, and Covington thinks the champion's path gets easiest against the division's #2, Carlos Prates. His verdict: Prates has nothing for Makhachev, is a pure striker, and would get taken down and tapped — Covington specifically floated a Kimura or a head-and-arm choke.

The math gives the take some teeth. Makhachev sits at 29-1 with 13 submissions on his ledger, a grappling resume that reads like a problem Prates simply hasn't been built to solve. Prates is 24-7 with 19 knockouts and just three submission wins of his own — a finisher, sure, but one whose entire game runs through his hands. He's coming off a third-round TKO of Jack Della Maddalena, which is exactly the kind of result that gets you ranked #2 and exactly the kind of skill set Covington says plays straight into Makhachev's wheelhouse.

The Fighter Colby Can't Read

Where Covington hedges is Michael Morales. The unbeaten Ecuadorian is 19-0 with 14 knockouts, ranked #3, and most recently flattened Sean Brady with first-round punches. Covington admits he doesn't know what to expect from Morales because nobody's seen him tested in a high-level, five-round fight. The honest answer, for once: the takedown defense is the unknown, and until someone makes Morales grapple for 25 minutes, the projections are guesswork.

That's a fair read. Morales has blown through everyone put in front of him, but a perfect record built largely on early finishes tells you how good he is at starting fights, not how he holds up in the deep water against a wrestler who drowns people. Against Makhachev, the fifth-round question isn't academic — it's the whole fight.

Consider the Source

It's worth remembering who's doing the forecasting. Covington is 17-5, unranked, and coming off a doctor's-stoppage TKO loss to Joaquin Buckley in the third. His own submission tally — five career subs — isn't nothing, but he's a long way from title contention himself these days. That doesn't make the analysis wrong. It just means the man breaking down Makhachev's easiest night isn't on anyone's list for a hard one.

Strip away the delivery and the point stands: a one-dimensional striker is a bad matchup for the best grappler the division has seen in years, and an untested unbeaten prospect is a genuine coin flip. Prates and Morales are the two names circling the belt. Covington just told you which one he'd book if he were Makhachev — and which one he wouldn't touch with confidence.