Errol Spence Returns After Three Years to Face Tim Tszyu in Australia

Errol Spence Jr steps back through the ropes this weekend for the first time in three years, and he's doing it the hard way: on the road in Australia, at 160 pounds, against a live opponent in Tim Tszyu. The 12-round middleweight main event marks Spence's first outing since Terence Crawford dismantled him in 2022. Since then, Crawford has picked up world titles in two more divisions and walked away. Spence, meanwhile, has done nothing at all.

Spence (28-1, 22 KO) carries a 22-knockout resume but zero recent form. The layoff alone is a red flag — three years off usually means a fighter either couldn't or wouldn't get back in there, and neither reading is flattering. He's also 36 now, originally signed to fight at 158, missed that mark, and had the limit bumped to 160. This from a man who spent his career at welterweight and has never genuinely campaigned north of 147.

Tszyu's Case

Tszyu (27-3, 18 KO) at least has the virtue of activity. He's fought seven times in the window Spence has been idle — and every one of his three career losses came during that same stretch. He's 31, technically in his prime, but the mileage is real. He's on a two-fight winning streak over Anthony Velazquez and Denis Nurja, though both were shutout decisions against the kind of padded-record opposition designed to make a fighter look 'back.'

Here's the thing about writing off Tszyu, though: the guy has a granite chin and a bottomless well of stubbornness. He went the full 12 rounds with Sebastian Fundora — now the WBC super welterweight champion at 24-1-1 — with his scalp split open and blood pouring down his face. That's the version of Tszyu Spence has to solve. Not the technician, the grinder.

The Matchup

In a vacuum, this reads as Spence's fight. He's excellent in the phone-booth exchanges Tszyu prefers, he owns a serious jab, and he's got height and reach to work behind. Tszyu's recent get-well wins showed none of the defensive adjustments he'd need against elite pressure. But we're not in a vacuum, and this isn't 2022 Spence.

The worry is temperament. Spence has always carried a mean streak, and a fighter who prefers to hurt people tends to plant his feet even when the smarter play is to box and move. Combine aging legs with a burning desire to trade, and you've got the exact conditions Tszyu thrives in — a war of attrition over the back half of a 12-round fight.

The Verdict

That extra distance is the swing factor. Over 10 rounds, Spence probably banks enough early to win. Over 12, Tszyu gets the additional time to test whether Spence still wants to be in there when it gets ugly. Tszyu is a flawed product — a touch fragile, short on one-shot power — but heart might be exactly what decides this one. Lean Tszyu, late, by stoppage.