Makhachev vs Garry: Can 'The Future' Topple P4P's Last Man Standing?

The pound-for-pound rankings have been a demolition derby in 2026. Back in February the top four read Islam Makhachev, Ilia Topuria, Alex Pereira and Khamzat Chimaev. Three of them — everyone but Makhachev — have since eaten a loss. Pereira is a case in point: the former two-division champ sits at 13-4 after getting stopped in round two by Ciryl Gane and is now floating as a light heavyweight title eliminator name.

That's the backdrop as Makhachev walks into UFC 330 on Saturday defending welterweight gold against Ian Machado Garry, who arrives 10-1 in the Octagon and utterly convinced this is his moment. Makhachev is now a two-weight champion, having added the 170-pound strap to his lightweight reign, but this is the first time he's defending the bigger belt — and the first time a challenger this brash has stood across from him.

The Case For the Upset

Garry's résumé isn't decoration. He's thumped former titleholders — Belal Muhammad among them — and he's earned this shot in part because Shavkat Rakhmonov remains sidelined with no return timeline. What makes 'The Future' dangerous isn't power; it's the awkward, sticky style that strips opponents of their best weapon. He's size, reach and a knack for being a genuine pain to fight. If he somehow neutralizes Makhachev's grappling and outpoints him, it lands squarely on the list of the sport's most absurd outcomes.

The Case Against It

Here's the problem. Garry wins on points more than he wins by force, and against arguably the most complete fighter on the planet, decision-hunting feels like a losing plan. Makhachev's wrestling and submission game are elite — if he doesn't respect Garry's counters, he shoots, clinches, and drags the fight into deep water. From there it's a matter of time before the finish comes. A Garry victory would require him to hurt Makhachev or completely jam the grappling, and nobody's projecting that.

There's a legitimate argument this would be Makhachev's best win, too. Not by star power — by degree of difficulty. Jack Della Maddalena and Charles Oliveira were stylistically kind matchups, Renato Moicano never had a prayer, and both Volkanovski fights broke the only way they realistically could. Beating a fighter as slippery as Garry, cleanly, would sit above all of it.

The co-headline carries its own asterisk. Mackenzie Dern defends strawweight gold against Gillian Robertson as the favorite, but she can't fully escape Zhang Weili's shadow. Zhang vacated the belt chasing a flyweight title that didn't pan out, leaving her in limbo — an uncrowned champion the second she declares she's coming back to 115. Until she does, though, the division runs through Dern. Win Saturday and, in the eyes of at least some observers, she's the real strawweight queen, sidequests be damned.