Oliveira Says a Lopes Win Makes Him Next — With or Without Gaethje

Charles Oliveira isn't waiting on Justin Gaethje to figure out his future. The former lightweight champ headlines UFC 335 on Dec. 12 defending the BMF belt against Diego Lopes, and he's already positioning himself as the man next in line for a shot at the 155-pound crown — regardless of who's holding it.

Gaethje unified the titles by stopping Ilia Topuria on the White House lawn in June, then floated the idea of retiring as champion. He's a 33-fight veteran who's said he won't fight again before year's end. Oliveira's read on the situation is blunt: if money is the deciding factor, Gaethje probably doesn't come back.

Why Oliveira Thinks Gaethje May Walk

The logic is simple math. Oliveira argues Gaethje will never top the White House purse — a card where, by his estimate, fighters earning 100 were suddenly earning 500 for the glamour of the venue. Any future payday would still be good, Oliveira says, but nowhere near that number. He stopped short of pushing Gaethje in either direction, saying the decision belongs to the champ alone and that he'd earn a standing ovation whether he retires or keeps fighting.

The Contender Argument

Here's where it gets spicy. The obvious No. 1 contender is Arman Tsarukyan, who's 24-3, ranked #2, and just iced Mauricio Ruffy with a first-round knockout. Tsarukyan also owns a 2024 split-decision win over Oliveira — the kind of result that usually settles the pecking order. Oliveira isn't buying it.

His case rests on two things: star power and history. Oliveira reckons he sells far more than Tsarukyan, and he's quick to remind anyone listening that he submitted Gaethje back in 2022. A win over Lopes, he argues, slots him straight into a title fight that draws — and if Gaethje does retire, the path narrows to exactly one matchup: Oliveira vs. Tsarukyan for the vacant belt.

So the whole division is stuck in a holding pattern, waiting on one man to make up his mind. Oliveira's job is to take care of Lopes first and make the conversation moot. Everything after that hinges on whether Gaethje wants one more walk to the cage — or a quieter exit as champion.