Teddy Atlas Backs Tszyu Over Spence: Too Many Question Marks After 3-Year Layoff

Teddy Atlas isn't buying the Errol Spence comeback. The Hall of Fame trainer has picked Tim Tszyu to beat Spence when the pair meet this weekend at Sydney's Afterpay Arena, and his reasoning is simple: three years of inactivity plus a life-threatening 2019 car crash equals too much uncertainty to trust the American.

Spence, 36, hasn't set foot in the ring since July 2023, when Terence Crawford stopped him in the ninth round to become undisputed welterweight champion. Crawford has since moved up two weight classes and beaten Canelo Álvarez by unanimous decision to sit at 42-0 (31 KO) — a reminder of just how far the sport has traveled while Spence stayed on the sidelines.

Atlas Makes His Case

Atlas laid out his case on his YouTube channel, pointing to a detail that raised his eyebrows. Spence originally agreed to a 158lb catchweight, then successfully requested a bump to 160. Atlas noted it's the naturally smaller man moving up who asked for the change, and called that concerning. Add in Tszyu fighting at home and staying active, and Atlas said the question marks around Spence simply outweigh the ones around the Australian.

That's the key phrase — Atlas admitted he'd love to pick Spence, but said he knows what he's getting from Tszyu, flaws and all. It's a pragmatic read rather than a glowing endorsement, because Tszyu's recent form is nothing to write home about either.

Tszyu's Recent Form

Tszyu has lost two of his last five, both by stoppage. Sebastian Fundora out-worked him and took his belt before going on to blast Keith Thurman in six rounds; Fundora now holds the WBC super welterweight strap at 24-1-1 (15 KO). Then came Bakhram Murtazaliev, who brutally halted Tszyu — though Murtazaliev has since dropped a majority decision to Josh Kelly and sits at 23-1 (17 KO), ranked #7 at 154.

So this isn't a clash of two fighters at their peak. It's a stylistic and situational bet. Spence brings the bigger name and the harder question: can a fighter who's been through a near-fatal crash and 36 months out of the ring flip a switch against a live opponent in that opponent's backyard?

The Verdict

Atlas landed on no. Activity, home advantage and a body of recent work — however scarred — tipped him toward Tszyu. Spence deserves credit for choosing a genuine test rather than a tune-up, but plenty share Atlas's doubt that a three-year absence is something you shake off against anyone worth fighting.