UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov: Picks & Analysis

Temirov is the finisher here — 11 KO/TKOs, a 58% KO rate, and four straight first-round stoppages before a decision win in March 2025. But his 41% striking accuracy is low, and at 5'4" with a 63" reach he surrenders a massive four-inch height and five-inch reach gap to Erceg, one of the largest physical disparities on the card at flyweight.

Erceg is the more proven commodity, ranked #10 with wins over ranked opposition. His game is well-rounded: 4.64 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy, 1.1 takedowns per 15, and a 43% submission rate off 6 career subs. He's rebounded with two straight unanimous decisions after a rough three-fight skid that included a KO loss, so durability is a mild concern.

Temirov's power is real and his path is an early ambush before Erceg settles. But the reach gap lets Erceg fight long, and his grappling gives him a second gear Temirov can't match — Temirov's 50% takedown accuracy comes on low volume. Expect Erceg to use length, mix in takedowns, and outpoint the shorter man over three. The finishing threat keeps confidence moderate at 62.

This is a mismatch of trajectory and physical tools. Dulatov is 12-1 with a 100% finish rate on all his wins and a staggering 8.78 significant strikes per minute at 56% accuracy — elite output backed by a 67% KO rate and 100% takedown accuracy on 2.2 attempts per 15. At 6'3" with a 75" reach, he towers three inches and holds three inches of reach over the 6'0", 72" Turman.

Turman is the more experienced grappler with 8 submission wins and a 44% sub rate, but he's in a rough patch — three straight losses before his last listed win, including a rear-naked choke defeat. His 3.23 strikes/min and 21% takedown accuracy suggest he'll struggle to impose grappling on a bigger, faster, higher-volume opponent.

Turman's only path is dragging Dulatov into deep water and hunting a submission scramble. But Dulatov finishes everyone in the first round — all five listed wins came in R1 — and his volume plus power should overwhelm early. Turman's chin has been tested by finishers. Expect Dulatov to swarm and stop him inside two rounds.

Two undefeated prospects, but the data tilts. Zaynukov, 8-0, posts an eye-popping 15.67 significant strikes per minute at 62% accuracy with 100% takedown accuracy — a relentless volume-and-pressure profile. His 63% finish rate and three recent unanimous decisions show he can both stop opponents and win the long fight. He's the -245 favorite for good reason.

Rzepecki, 10-0 at just 24, brings a 90% finish rate with a balanced 4 KO/5 sub split and the physical edge — a 73.5" reach against Zaynukov's 68", a full 5.5 inches. His youth and length are real assets, but his striking and grappling metrics aren't provided, leaving his output and defensive numbers a blank we can't verify.

The market and the concrete stats favor Zaynukov's suffocating pace — nobody has solved his volume yet. Rzepecki's path is using length to keep it long and landing a fight-ending shot, which his 90% finish rate makes plausible. But with Rzepecki's stat profile thin, I lean on Zaynukov's documented 62% accuracy and pressure to win a decision. Confidence stays low at 60 given the reach gap and Rzepecki's finishing pedigree.

A close ranked heavyweight scrap between #8 Kuniev and #9 Fortune. Kuniev is the sharper striker on paper — 66% accuracy at 3.94 strikes/min, a 46% KO rate, and 75% takedown accuracy. At 6'4" with a 76" reach he holds a two-inch height edge, though Fortune's 77" reach is actually the longest in the fight.

Fortune is the superior wrestler: 3.0 takedowns per 15 at 60% accuracy versus Kuniev's 1.0, and he's ridden a four-fight win streak with three finishes. His 2.00 strikes/min is low, meaning he wins by grinding and top control, not volume. His lone recent loss was a heel hook, a submission vulnerability to note against Kuniev's 15% sub rate.

Kuniev's path is landing his cleaner strikes at range and stuffing takedowns with his 75% own accuracy suggesting good scrambles. Fortune's path is takedown volume and mauling from top — his 3.0 TD/15 is the single biggest statistical edge in this fight. The -340 line favors Kuniev, but Fortune's wrestling and momentum make this closer than the odds. I take Fortune's grappling to steal rounds in a coin-flip decision at 56.

This is a grappler-versus-decision-machine matchup. Vagaev is 24-4 but wins by attrition — 19 of his wins are decisions, a 21% finish rate, and three straight unanimous decisions. His stat profile beyond record is missing, so we lean on his pattern: he grinds points over three rounds and rarely gets finished.

Izagakhmaev is the far more dangerous finisher: 13 submission wins, a 59% sub rate, 4.0 takedowns per 15, and a 73% finish rate. His striking volume is minimal (1.33 strikes/min) but he lands at 74% — he's not there to strike, he's there to drag fights to the mat and choke. He's coming off a split-decision loss, his first setback in a while.

Vagaev's path is stuffing takedowns and banking rounds on the feet, exactly how he's built his record. Izagakhmaev's path is his 4.0 TD/15 and relentless submission hunting. The -235 line favors Vagaev, likely on his durability and win rate, but Izagakhmaev's 59% sub rate is the decisive skill in the cage. If he gets it to the mat, he finishes. I take the submission threat, tempered to 60 by Vagaev's rarely-finished durability.

Walker is a specialist wrecking ball — four straight first-round heel hook submissions and a 5.7 takedowns-per-15 rate at 69% accuracy, the highest grappling volume on the card. Ranked #13, at 6'6" with a 78.5" reach, he towers five inches over Petersen and holds a 4.5-inch reach edge. His 2.5 submission attempts per 15 signal constant offense on the mat.

Petersen is a solid striker at 71% accuracy with a 64% KO rate and 3.0 takedowns per 15, but his defense is the concern — two KO losses in his last four, both by punch. He's the +155 underdog and rightly so. His path is keeping it standing and cracking Walker, whose 2.00 strikes/min shows he's not a volume striker.

The fight lives and dies on where it takes place. Petersen's takedown offense is decent, but Walker's 5.7 TD/15 and leg-lock game are on a different tier — once it hits the floor, the heel hook streak tells the story. Petersen must land early on the feet. Walker's grappling dominance and size make a submission the likeliest outcome at 70.

Veteran experience versus an undefeated unknown. Jacoby is 22-9-1 with a 68% KO rate, 5.40 significant strikes per minute, and three straight KO/TKO wins — he's the sharper, higher-volume striker with a well-established profile at 6'3" and a 76" reach. At 38 he's the elder, but his recent form is a hot streak of finishes.

Said is 9-0 with an 89% finish rate and six KOs, but his stat sheet beyond record is blank — no accuracy, output, or defensive numbers, so his level of opposition is a genuine unknown. He's the younger man at 30 and clearly hits hard, but he's untested against a durable striker of Jacoby's caliber.

Jacoby's path is his documented volume and power against unproven competition — he's been in the cage with far better and is riding a finishing streak. Said's path is his own knockout pop landing before Jacoby's experience takes over. Jacoby has two KO losses on his record, so he's not immune, which keeps this close. I lean on the proven striker's 5.40 strikes/min and take Jacoby by stoppage, but at just 55 given Said's data void.

Age and trajectory drive this one. Ponzinibbio is a proven 31-9 striker with 17 KOs and a 55% KO rate, but at 39 he's shown decline — two KO losses in his last four, including a third-round stoppage in May 2025. His 42% striking accuracy is modest and his chin has been found repeatedly at this stage.

Patterson brings the physical edges: 6'3" with a 78" reach against Ponzinibbio's 6'0", 73", a five-inch reach advantage. His game is grappling-led — 7 submission wins, a 50% sub rate, 1.6 sub attempts per 15, and a 93% finish rate. His striking volume (2.62/min) is lower, but he's the -550 favorite for good reason: nine years younger and more durable.

Ponzinibbio's path is landing early power before the fight hits the mat — his experience and pop can still hurt anyone. But Patterson's reach lets him manage distance, and once it's on the ground his 50% sub rate takes over against an aging striker who prefers to stand. I take Patterson to drag it down and find the finish, confidence 64 given Ponzinibbio's still-live power.

A live underdog-versus-favorite lightweight scrap. Bonfim is the more accomplished name — 20-6 with a 55% striking accuracy at 5.51 strikes/min and a 45% KO rate — but he's in a slide, dropping two straight by stoppage, both finishes inside two rounds. His durability is a flashing concern.

Sola is 11-1-1 at 28 with the physical edges: 6'0" and a 74" reach against Bonfim's 5'8", 71.5", a four-inch height gap. His southpaw stance, 55% KO rate, and 2.2 takedowns per 15 give him a varied attack, though his 47% accuracy is lower and he's coming off a decision loss himself.

Bonfim's path is his higher-volume, more accurate striking landing before Sola settles — his 5.51 strikes/min is the fight's biggest output number. Sola's path is using length, southpaw angles, and takedowns to avoid the firefight Bonfim wants. Given Bonfim's back-to-back KO losses and Sola's size and youth, I lean Sola to manage range and grind a decision at a cautious 58.

Tuchalov is a perfect 6-0 with a 100% finish rate and five KOs — every win comes early and violently. At 6'5" he's a towering light heavyweight, and his momentum is undeniable. His broader stats are unlisted, so we lean on the finishing pattern and clean record against unknown opposition.

Ribeiro is the experienced man at 17-10 with a 94% finish rate and long 81" reach — the fight's longest — but he's spiraling: three straight losses, all first-round finishes, two by KO/TKO. His 45% striking accuracy and thin 3.04 strikes/min suggest he's hittable, and his chin has been repeatedly cracked lately.

Ribeiro's path is his reach and 41% sub rate catching the younger man in a scramble — his 7 career subs are real. But Tuchalov finishes everyone, and Ribeiro is being finished by everyone right now. The size is close, but form and durability point one way. I take the unbeaten prospect by stoppage at 66, with Ribeiro's reach and sub game the only real doubt.

Contrasting profiles: Davis the finisher, Aliev the accumulator. Davis is 12-3 with a 67% KO rate, 4.73 strikes/min at 56% accuracy, and 2.4 takedowns per 15 — a well-rounded, powerful package. But at 33 with three losses, he's the more beatable option on paper, coming off a KO win but with a decision loss in his recent stretch.

Aliev is 11-0 at just 25, a decision machine with nine of eleven wins by the judges and an 18% finish rate. His game is control-based: 57% striking accuracy, 2.1 takedowns per 15, and near-identical reach to Davis. He doesn't hurt people, but he's never lost and grinds relentlessly.

Davis's path is his 67% KO power landing before Aliev's pace takes over — one clean shot changes everything. Aliev's path is his youth, cardio, and control accumulating rounds exactly as he's done eleven times. Davis carries the finishing edge, but Aliev's unbeaten grinding and eight-year youth advantage should bank the rounds. I take Aliev by decision at 63, respecting Davis's power as the live threat.

Youth and finishing versus a fading veteran. Hussein is 15-2 at 28 with a 93% finish rate and nine submission wins — his last five are all first- or second-round stoppages, a red-hot streak. His full stats are unlisted, but the pattern is clear: he finishes fast and often, split between KOs and subs.

Gibson is a 38-year-old veteran at 22-12 with deep experience — 2.1 takedowns per 15, a 51% striking accuracy, and a balanced 7 KO/6 sub finish split. But he's fading: two losses in his last three, including a first-round KO and a kimura submission, showing both his chin and his mat defense are cracking.

Gibson's path is his experience and wrestling controlling the younger man over three rounds — he's the taller fighter at 5'10" against Hussein's 5'5". Hussein's path is his relentless finishing, and Gibson's recent submission loss plays directly into Hussein's 9-sub game. Ten-year age gap and momentum favor the prospect. I take Hussein by submission at 67, with Gibson's veteran savvy the only brake.