UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues: Picks & Analysis

De Ridder brings a two-inch reach edge (78 vs 76), a southpaw look, and elite grappling: 13 of 21 wins by submission and a 62% sub rate. Dolidze is the more explosive striker with a 53% KO/TKO rate and 8 knockouts, but at 38 with a 3.19-strikes-per-minute output, he's a lower-volume, opportunistic finisher rather than a pressure machine.

Both men are coming off skids — de Ridder lost his last two (decision, then KO'd R4), while Dolidze dropped a decision and was submitted via rear-naked choke in R4. That last Dolidze loss matters: it shows de Ridder's exact finishing tool works against similar opposition. De Ridder's 2.6 takedowns per 15 and 84% career win rate give him a reliable path to the mat.

Dolidze's route is the counter left and a KO before the grappling drains him. But de Ridder's 70% striking accuracy and length let him manage range and change levels. Submission by the taller, younger, higher-percentage grappler is the call, with confidence tempered by de Ridder's recent knockout loss.

Spivac is the ranked wrestler-grappler here, with a strong 3.8 takedowns per 15 at 59% accuracy and 8 submission wins. Petrino, unranked and moving up, is younger by three years (28 vs 31), carries a 57% KO/TKO rate, and owns an 88% career win rate over 16 fights. Spivac has the higher striking accuracy (60%) but his chin is a concern — two of his last three losses came by first- and second-round knockouts.

Spivac's path is clear: get Petrino down and grind, where his 44% submission rate can capitalize. Petrino's own 46% takedown defense-relevant offense and 2.6 takedowns per 15 mean he isn't a pure sprawler, but he can hurt Spivac standing. Spivac's demonstrated durability issues — KO'd in R1 (2025-01) and R2 (2023-09) — tilt this toward the younger, harder-hitting man.

Petrino by KO/TKO. His power plus Spivac's fragile chin is the deciding equation, though Spivac's grappling could steal a decision if he plants Petrino early, so confidence stays modest at 60.

Two heavy hitters with shaky recent form. Nzechukwu has a 71% KO/TKO rate and a huge 83-inch reach — a 4.5-inch edge over Gaziev's 78.5 — plus higher output at 4.96 significant strikes per minute versus 2.94. Gaziev owns a 64% KO/TKO rate and a stout 82% career win rate but arrives on a two-fight knockout skid (KO'd R2 in 2026-05, R1 in 2025-11).

The concern for both is durability. Nzechukwu was submitted via heel hook and drew his last outing, so he's without a clean win recently either. But Gaziev's back-to-back knockout losses suggest his chin is trending the wrong way, and his low 33% takedown accuracy means he can't easily change the pattern.

Nzechukwu's reach, volume, and southpaw angle should let him land first against a fading Gaziev. KO/TKO is the method, but with both men vulnerable, this is close to a coin flip at 56.

Judice is the explosive finisher — a blistering 9.32 significant strikes per minute and an 83% KO/TKO rate, with three straight wins including two knockouts. Chaves is undefeated at 8-0 but grinds: a 100% win rate built on four decisions, three of them splits, with more measured 4.97-strikes-per-minute output at a sharper 59% accuracy. Reach is identical at 68 inches.

The dynamic is volume-power versus control and pace. Judice's path is early damage — her striking numbers are frightening if she connects clean. But her defensive record includes two split-decision losses, showing she can be out-pointed in close rounds, exactly Chaves's specialty. Chaves also adds 1.5 takedowns per 15 to steal grappling exchanges.

Chaves by decision. Her undefeated resume and knack for surviving tight scorecards edge out Judice's boom-or-bust volume, though if Judice lands early this flips fast — hence 58.

Both men are finishers who rarely see the judges — McVey has a 100% finish rate over 9 fights, Schultz an 89% finish rate with 6 submission wins. McVey brings a two-inch height edge, a southpaw stance, elite 73% striking accuracy and 6.51 strikes per minute, plus a 57% submission rate. Schultz is the busier submission hunter at 3.6 attempts per 15 and a 67% sub rate.

This is a grappling collision. Schultz's path is dragging McVey into scrambles where his guillotine and choke game (three of his last four wins) can catch him. But McVey's recent losses both came by submission (RNC, armbar), a clear vulnerability Schultz can exploit. Conversely, McVey's D'Arce and Brabo chokes plus his striking accuracy give him more ways to win.

McVey by submission. His superior striking efficiency and finishing versatility edge a fight where either man can tap the other — a genuine toss-up at 57.

Dyer is the younger, rangier, higher-output fighter: eight years younger (25 vs 33), a two-inch reach edge (65 vs 63), and a huge volume gap at 7.71 significant strikes per minute versus Reed's 3.41. Her 71% KO/TKO rate and five knockouts contrast with Reed's decision-heavy profile (6 of 8 wins by decision, 25% finish rate).

Reed's path is her superior accuracy — 67% versus Dyer's 47% — using clean counters to out-point Dyer over three rounds, plus a decent 60% takedown accuracy to slow the pace. But Reed enters off a knockout loss and has been finished repeatedly (two RNC losses, one KO), and her low volume struggles to keep a busy striker off her.

Dyer by KO/TKO. Her pace and power against a fighter who's been stopped multiple times point to a finish, though Reed's accuracy edge could drag it to the scorecards if she survives — confidence 65.

Young is the sharper, higher-volume striker — 6.32 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy versus Steele's 3.85 per minute at a poor 37% accuracy. Young is younger (26 vs 31) and carries three wins in his last four, including a split, a unanimous, and a TKO. Steele has a strong 89% career win rate but a much lower fight sample and shakier striking numbers.

Steele's danger is grappling and power in bursts — a heel-hook submission win in his last outing and a 50% KO/TKO rate show he can finish. But his 25% takedown accuracy makes it hard to reliably get Young down, and his 37% striking accuracy means he'll lose the standing exchanges against Young's volume and one-inch shorter but comparable frame.

Young by decision. His accuracy and output should bank rounds against a less efficient striker, though Steele's finishing pop and submission threat keep this from being a lock — 61.