UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez: Picks & Analysis

Age and trajectory dominate this one. Blachowicz is 43 and winless in his last four (two draws, two losses) since his 2022 TKO, while the unbeaten Stirling is 28, 10-0, and riding back-to-back R2 knockouts. Stirling also holds the physical edges: 6'4" to 6'2" and 79" reach to 78", with nearly double the striking output at 6.24 per minute versus Blachowicz's 3.55.

Blachowicz's path is his championship-level experience and grappling — 9 submission wins, 31% submission rate, and a real 1.0 takedowns per 15. If he can drag the younger man into the clinch and championship rounds, his savvy could steal a decision. His 58% striking accuracy shows he's still technically sharp.

But Stirling's 57% accuracy, higher volume, and 60% KO rate against a fighter who hasn't won since 2022 point clearly one way. Blachowicz's low takedown accuracy (49%) may not solve Stirling's frame. The youth, size and momentum gap decide it — Stirling banks rounds and wins a clear decision.

A grim battle of skidding veterans. Rakic has lost four straight, all recent, including an R1 KO in October 2025. Tybura is 1-2 in his last three with a September 2025 R1 KO loss. Both are past their peak, so this comes down to who has more left. Rakic is 34 to Tybura's 40, and holds a slight striking edge — 4.13 per minute at 62% accuracy versus Tybura's 3.56 at 60%.

Tybura's path is his grappling: 1.3 takedowns per 15 and a 7-submission résumé. If he can ground Rakic and lean on him, his 71% career win rate and durability could grind out a decision. His problem is a low 33% takedown accuracy against a rangy 6'4" opponent.

Rakic's 64% KO rate and cleaner striking give him the edge if it stays standing, and his six-year age advantage matters in a heavyweight scrap. This is close to a coin flip given both men's recent form, but the younger, sharper striker gets the nod on the feet.

This is grappler-vs-grappler with sharply different profiles. Valentin is a submission specialist — 8 of 12 wins by tap, a 67% submission rate, and 1.8 submission attempts per 15. Todorović is more of a finisher-mauler, 92% finish rate with 8 KOs and 4 subs, and higher volume at 4.73 strikes per minute against Valentin's tiny 1.30.

Todorović's path is his striking and pressure — 68% accuracy and a 62% KO rate mean if he keeps it standing he's dangerous, and he owns the reach at 74" to work behind. But both men have been finished repeatedly lately: Todorović has three R1 losses on his recent ledger, and Valentin has been KO'd twice recently too. Whoever imposes their game first likely finishes.

Valentin's 77" reach edge and elite submission threat tip a close one. His most recent outing was a R1 rear-naked choke, and Todorović's 21% takedown accuracy suggests he can't reliably keep it standing on his terms. Expect Valentin to find the back and finish, though the coin-flip nature keeps confidence low.

Čepo's data is thin — no striking or grappling splits and missing physicals — but the record tells a clear story: 14-3 with a 100% finish rate, 10 KOs and 4 subs, and two straight R1 knockouts. Every one of his listed wins is a finish. Urbina, by contrast, is 7-5 with a modest 57% finish rate and has been knocked out in the first round in each of his last two fights.

Urbina's path is his wrestling: 2.9 takedowns per 15 at 44% accuracy and a 5.57 strikes-per-minute output at 65% accuracy. He's the taller man at 6'3" with a 75" reach, so if he can drag Čepo down and control, he neutralizes the power. That's his only reliable route given his chin questions.

But Urbina's back-to-back R1 KO losses against a finisher who ends everything early is a dangerous combination. Čepo's 82% win rate and all-or-nothing finishing profile make him the pick — if the fight starts on the feet, Urbina's durability is the liability. Data is limited, so this leans on results over splits.

Klein is the more complete and better-conditioned fighter. He carries a 3.76-per-minute output at 60% accuracy plus real wrestling — 1.4 takedowns per 15 at 52% accuracy and 8 career submissions. He's 4-1 in his last five, all recent, and can win rounds in multiple phases. Musayev is a devastating puncher (18 KOs, 78% KO rate) but strikes at just 1.84 per minute — a low-volume, one-shot profile.

Musayev's path is clear: he's a heavier hitter with better takedowns on paper (2.3 per 15 at 60%) and he tapped out in his most recent loss but bounced back to a decision win. If he lands his power early or controls with wrestling, he's live. At 36 versus Klein's 31, though, the pace concern is real.

Klein's superior volume, southpaw movement and 72.5" reach (vs Musayev's 69") let him outwork a low-output striker over three rounds. Musayev's 1.84 strikes per minute simply won't win rounds against a busier, well-rounded opponent. Klein grinds a decision.

Oliveira is a wrecking machine on paper: 9-0 with an 89% KO rate, a huge 8.40 significant strikes per minute, and a 78.5" reach that towers over Elliott's 72". Seven of his nine wins are knockouts and four came in R1 or R2. Elliott is the more experienced and rounded fighter but has dropped two straight — a R2 submission and a decision loss.

Elliott's path is grappling and grit: 1.5 takedowns per 15, a 25% submission rate, and six decision wins showing he can go the distance. His best chance is to take Oliveira down, avoid the firefight, and test whether the unbeaten prospect has been to deep water — Oliveira has only one decision on his record.

But Oliveira's 6.5-inch reach advantage and elite output make standing exchanges a losing proposition for Elliott, whose 54% accuracy and 3.62 volume are dwarfed. Unless Elliott can consistently ground him, the power and length end it. Oliveira by knockout, with the caveat that his cardio and takedown defense are unproven.

A fascinating physical mismatch. Musasa has an enormous 74" reach on a 5'8" frame and a 5'3" opponent with a 65" reach — a nine-inch reach gap. He's a big puncher too, 88% KO rate. But Musasa is 0-2 in his last two, losing a decision and a R1 submission, exposing grappling holes. Vologdin is the busier striker at 6.93 per minute versus Musasa's 3.19.

Vologdin's path runs through pressure and grappling — 4 submission wins, a 33% submission rate, and a 6.93 output that could overwhelm Musasa if he closes the huge distance. His last outing was a draw and he's just 26, the fresher fighter. His challenge is the reach: getting inside on a rangy southpaw who hits hard is dangerous.

This is near a coin flip. Musasa's power and reach make him live, but his back-to-back losses and 0% submission defense concerns against a grappler who taps people out tilt it. Vologdin's volume and youth carry a close decision, though Musasa's KO threat keeps confidence minimal.

Grad's wrestling is the story: a huge 4.2 takedowns per 15 at 41% accuracy, well ahead of Buzukja's 0.6. Both men are on skids — Grad has lost two straight, Buzukja three of his last four including a R1 KO in April 2026 — but Grad's 79% career win rate and 60% KO rate outclass Buzukja's 67% and inconsistent 48% striking accuracy.

Buzukja's path is on the feet: he's a switch-stance striker with a 4.21 output and six decision wins, and if he can stuff takedowns and keep it standing he has a puncher's chance. But his 48% accuracy and porous 27% takedown defense against a high-volume wrestler is a bad combination.

Grad's ability to change levels and control should dictate where this fight happens. With a 4.2 takedown rate against a striker who's been finished repeatedly, Grad grinds out a decision. Both are vulnerable to being knocked out, but Grad's grappling edge and superior finish rate make him the sounder pick.

Both lightweights arrive cold — Rębecki has lost four of five, Prepolec is 0-2 in his last two — so form is a wash and this hinges on skill profile. Rębecki is the far more complete fighter: 3.0 takedowns per 15 at 49% accuracy, a 35% submission rate, and 52% striking accuracy versus Prepolec's alarming 35%. Prepolec is a pure power puncher with 10 KOs and a 56% KO rate.

Prepolec's path is simple: land bombs early. His three wins before the recent skid were all R1 finishes, and if he catches the shorter Rębecki (66" reach vs 70") standing, he has real one-punch power. But his 35% striking accuracy suggests he sprays and prays.

Rębecki's wrestling and submission game are the difference. He can close the reach gap, put Prepolec on his back, and hunt the finish — exactly the areas Prepolec is weakest. Despite Rębecki's rough recent stretch (including two submission losses), his 80% career win rate and grappling depth carry it. He grinds Prepolec down and finds a submission.

Milošević's data is limited — no striking or grappling splits — but her 8-1 record with a 63% finish rate and a five-fight win streak (two by R1 KO) is a stark contrast to Cowan's slide. Cowan is 34, has lost three straight including a R2 knee KO and a R2 submission, and sits at just a 58% win rate.

Cowan's path is her wrestling: 1.9 takedowns per 15 at 43% accuracy and a 29% submission rate give her a route if she can control the younger woman on the mat. Her 55% striking accuracy shows some polish, but her 2.66-per-minute output is low and her recent durability is a concern after two straight R2 finishes against her.

Momentum and youth decide this. Milošević is 29, unbeaten across her last five, and finishing fights, while Cowan hasn't won since 2022. Even with thin splits on Milošević, the trajectory gap is too wide. Milošević controls the pace and takes a clear decision, with finish upside given her two recent R1 KOs.

Leka is the standout prospect here: 13-2 at just 24 years old, riding a five-fight win streak with an 85% finish rate. His efficiency numbers are elite — 78% striking accuracy, 100% takedown accuracy, and a well-rounded 7 KO / 4 sub finishing arsenal. He also owns the reach and height, 6'4" to Gimenis's 6'2". Gimenis is 33, 6-2, and was knocked out in R1 in his most recent bout.

Gimenis's path is his own power — a 50% KO rate and three straight finishes before that R1 loss — plus a 75" reach that matches Leka's. If he lands early against the younger man, he has heavyweight-KO equalizer power. His 43% striking accuracy, though, is far below Leka's 78%.

The gap in efficiency, activity across phases, and momentum is decisive. Leka's flawless takedown accuracy and 78% striking precision against a fighter coming off an R1 knockout point to a controlled, dominant performance. Nine years younger and unbeaten in five, Leka lands the cleaner shots and finishes.