UFC Predictions · Sep 5, 2026
IN 42 DAYSUFC Fight Night: Paris: Picks & Analysis
Every fight broken down by the numbers — records, striking and grappling metrics, physical edges and form. Full fight card →
Main Event
Heavyweight
Pick: Mario Pinto by KO/TKO
This is a classic prospect-versus-veteran collision. Pinto is a perfect 12-0 with a 58% KO/TKO rate and an eye-popping 82% striking accuracy, while Spann brings 35 pro fights, a 24-11 record and battle scars that show on paper. They mirror each other physically at 6'5" with matching 79" reach, so there's no size or length edge either way — this comes down to output quality, durability and where the fight lives.
Spann's path is grappling. His 14 submission wins, 1.7 sub attempts per 15 and 58% submission rate are the real threat, and his guillotine has twice ended fights in Round 1 recently. But Pinto's takedown defense is untested against a finisher of Spann's caliber, and Spann's own takedowns land at just 35%. If Spann drags this to the mat early, the choke is live.
The problem for Spann is durability. Both of his last two losses came by KO/TKO in Round 2 (2025-03-15 and 2024-04-27), a repeating pattern against strikers. Pinto is precisely that: a 58% KO-rate finisher who lands 82% of his strikes and has three second-round or earlier stoppages in his last four. At 34 versus 28, the chin question favors the younger man.
Pinto's thin resume (12 fights, unranked opposition) and 26% takedown accuracy keep this from being a lock — Spann is the far more proven finisher and can end it in one grappling exchange. But the striking accuracy gap (82% vs 41%) and Spann's demonstrated vulnerability to power punchers point to Pinto walking him down and landing the fight-ender before the submission game gets going.
Keys to the fight
- ·Pinto's 82% striking accuracy vs Spann's 41%
- ·Spann's two recent R2 KO losses signal chin risk
- ·Spann's guillotine threat if fight hits mat early
Rest of the Card
Middleweight
Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev by Submission
Page is the #13-ranked technician, a switch-stance point striker with 65% accuracy and 13 KO wins, but his last four results tell the story: four straight decisions, no finishes since before 2024. At 39, his game has shifted toward volume-light, distance-managing kickboxing (2.28 sig strikes/min) rather than the highlight-reel knockouts of his youth.
Ruziboev is the danger. With 21 submission wins, a 92% finish rate and an 80% takedown accuracy, he is precisely the grappler who can nullify Page's footwork. Page's takedown defense is the career-long question mark, and Ruziboev opened his last fight with a Round 1 rear-naked choke. If he closes distance and puts Page on his back, the finish rate says the night ends there.
Page can absolutely win a striking chess match — his accuracy and ring IQ are elite, and Ruziboev's 3" reach disadvantage (76" vs 79") plus modest 53% accuracy give MVP the counter-striking edge at range. But over 15 minutes, staying off the fence against a 92%-finish grappler is a tall order at 39. The grappling threat and age gap tip a razor-thin pick toward Ruziboev.
Keys to the fight
- ·Ruziboev's 80% takedown accuracy vs Page's suspect TDD
- ·Page 39 years old, four straight decisions
- ·Ruziboev's 21 subs and 92% finish rate
Featherweight
Pick: Kurtis Campbell by Decision
This is a wrestler-versus-brawler stylistic clash. Peek is a pure pressure striker — 4.39 sig strikes/min, 89% KO/TKO rate, eight of nine wins by knockout — but he's lost three of his last four, all by decision, exposing him against opponents who don't stand and trade. At 31 with just 12 pro fights, his one-dimensional path (0% submission rate, striking only) is easy to game-plan around.
Campbell, 23, brings an absurd 8.8 takedowns per 15 minutes and a 2" reach edge (72" vs 70"). That volume wrestling is the exact antidote to Peek's power: take away his feet and the 89% KO rate becomes irrelevant. Campbell's own 46% striking accuracy and R2 KO loss last time out (2026-03-21) mean he can't just brawl, but he doesn't need to.
Peek's route is clear — force a phone-booth fight and land the one big shot, since his power (89% KO rate) dwarfs Campbell's chin questions. But if Campbell commits to the level changes, his takedown volume drowns Peek across three rounds. The youth, the wrestling and Peek's decision-loss pattern point to a grinding Campbell decision.
Keys to the fight
- ·Campbell's 8.8 takedowns per 15 neutralizes Peek's power
- ·Peek lost 3 of last 4, all decisions
- ·Campbell 8 years younger with reach edge
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