UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song: Picks & Analysis

Youth versus experience defines this strawweight bout. Yan, 37, brings volume at 4.69 significant strikes per minute and elite takedown accuracy at 73%, but she's dropped two of her last three, both by unanimous decision. Gomes, 26, is the sharper striker at 59% accuracy versus Yan's 51% and owns a scary 58% KO/TKO rate against Yan's 42%. Both stand at 63-inch reach, so the height edge Yan holds (5'5" to 5'2") is offset by Gomes's power and forward pressure.

Yan's path is pace and positional variety — outwork Gomes over 15 minutes and use her 73% takedown accuracy to steal rounds. Gomes wins by turning it into a phone booth war where her power and 59% accuracy punish the aging veteran. Gomes rides a four-fight win streak including a R2 KO, while Yan's recent form is spotty.

This is close to a coin flip, but the momentum and durability edge sits with the younger, harder-hitting Gomes. Yan's volume keeps it competitive, yet Gomes's accuracy and finishing threat should carry more decisive moments across three rounds.

These two share a No Contest from their May 2026 meeting, so this is a genuine rematch with unfinished business. Sumudaerji brings enormous physical edges: a 72-inch reach against Perez's 65.5 — a 6.5-inch gap — plus a two-inch height advantage and a southpaw stance to complicate the orthodox Perez. His 68% KO/TKO rate and 74% finish rate dwarf Perez's 27% and 54%, and he's won three straight prior to the NC.

Perez's path runs through grappling. He lands 2.1 takedowns per 15 at 45% and owns a 27% submission rate with seven career subs, versus Sumudaerji's leaky 38% takedown accuracy and thin grappling resume. If Perez drags this to the mat, he can neutralize the reach and hunt a finish, as his history shows. But at 34 with recent losses via guillotine and KO, his durability is a question.

On the feet, Sumudaerji's length and power are the story. His 54% accuracy roughly matches Perez's 55%, but he does far more damage per exchange. If he keeps distance and avoids the takedown, the knockout threat is constant. Narrow lean to the taller southpaw finishing it late.

This is grappler versus one-dimensional puncher, and the numbers scream mismatch on the mat. Tsuruya, just 24, lands a huge 5.0 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 45% submission rate and 82% career finish rate. Borjas offers no listed grappling stats and has been finished twice by KO recently, but more tellingly he has zero career submissions and a suspect 45% striking accuracy. Tsuruya's 65% accuracy and elite takedown volume let him dictate exactly where this goes.

Borjas's only path is landing a fight-ending shot early — his 73% KO/TKO rate is real, and if Tsuruya shoots carelessly he could get clipped. Both share a 68-inch reach, so there's no length advantage to protect Borjas on entries. But Tsuruya's 92% win rate and submission-heavy arsenal make this a chain-wrestling clinic waiting to happen.

Expect Tsuruya to close distance, plant Borjas on the canvas, and advance toward the back as he did in his R1 rear-naked choke in May. Borjas's power keeps early rounds tense, but the grappling gulf points to a submission for the younger man.

Asakura is the more explosive finisher — 64% KO/TKO rate, 77% career finish rate, and a R1 knockout in May 2026 — but his last three losses reveal a glaring hole: two submission defeats (guillotine, RNC) expose weak grappling. Aoriqileng lands 4.40 significant strikes per minute at a strong 57% accuracy, nearly double Asakura's 2.53 output, and adds 1.1 takedowns per 15 at 47%. Both stand 5'7"-5'8" with matching 69-inch reach, so this comes down to volume versus power.

Asakura's path is obvious: land the big shot early, as his 14 career KOs suggest. But his low striking volume means he needs a clean connection rather than accumulation. Aoriqileng's route is his pace and accuracy edge — outland Asakura across three rounds and use grappling exchanges to steal rounds, mirroring his 16 career decision wins.

Asakura's power is the great equalizer and keeps this dangerous throughout. But Aoriqileng's superior volume, accuracy, and takedown option give him more paths to bank rounds. Lean to the busier man on the cards in a competitive scrap.

This is a thin-data light heavyweight scrap, so we reason from what exists. Both men are pure finishers — Tafa and Liu each carry 100% finish rates, and every one of their combined wins comes by KO/TKO. Liu, at 6'5" with a 77.5-inch reach, towers over Tafa's 6'3" and 75-inch span, giving him a 2.5-inch reach edge in what projects as a striking shootout. Liu's record is a slim 3-1 across just four pro fights, so his sample is genuinely limited.

Tafa's data is also sparse but more revealing: he's 7-6 and has lost his last outing by R1 kick, plus two prior submission losses, signaling a fragile grappling game and inconsistent form. His 55% accuracy and R1 elbow finish in May show the power is live. Liu's most recent result was a R1 KO in May 2026, and his lone loss was a R2 TKO — durability is a shared question mark.

With both throwing bombs and neither showing a floor, this is close to a coin flip decided by who lands first. Liu's length and fresher momentum give him the razor-thin edge to score the knockout in a fight unlikely to see the judges.