Islam Makhachev Pegs Usman Nurmagomedov's UFC Move at 90%

Islam Makhachev thinks it's nearly a done deal. The reigning UFC welterweight champion, now 29-1 with 13 submissions on his ledger, put the chances of his cousin Usman Nurmagomedov signing with the promotion at 90% — stopping just short of calling it a certainty.

Makhachev said he couldn't guarantee 100%, but 90% felt right to him. His reasoning was simple: Usman has, in his view, already outgrown his current stage, and there's little appetite left among fans for another round of rematches.

That's a pointed read on where Nurmagomedov's career sits. When a fighter's champion cousin — one of the most accomplished names on the UFC roster — starts talking about opponents running dry, it usually means the conversation about a bigger platform is already happening behind the scenes.

Why the UFC Makes Sense

The pull is obvious. The UFC's lightweight division is the deepest talent pool in the sport, and it's the same weight class where Makhachev built his own reputation before moving up to 170 pounds. For a Nurmagomedov looking to test himself against fresh competition, there's no shortage of names waiting.

Makhachev knows that path better than almost anyone. He climbed from prospect to lightweight king to welterweight champion, stacking a 5 KO, 13 submission finishing record along the way and taking his most recent decision over Ian Machado Garry. If Usman does make the jump, he'll have a blueprint — and a coach's-eye read on the division — sitting in his corner.

For now, it's a percentage and a prediction, not a signed contract. But Makhachev doesn't tend to throw numbers around loosely, and 90% is close enough to make the UFC's lightweight contenders pay attention.