UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry: Picks & Analysis

A grappler-vs-grappler clash with identical 63" reach and near-identical size. Dern owns elite BJJ and a 50% submission rate with 8 career subs, plus improving striking at 3.47 landed per minute and 55% accuracy. Robertson is the busier wrestler — 2.8 takedowns per 15 at 41% versus Dern's 0.9 at just 18% — and rides a five-fight win streak with a 71% finish rate and two recent KO/TKOs.

The danger for Dern is Robertson's improved striking (18% KO rate, a 2025 TKO) and her ability to control position; Dern has been out-pointed before (0-8 KO/TKO wins of her own, two recent losses including a KO). But putting Robertson on the mat plays into Dern's guard, where her 1.1 sub attempts per 15 are lethal. Robertson's own 53% sub rate cuts both ways.

This is close to a coin flip, but Dern's championship pedigree, sharper hands, and world-class bottom game edge it. Expect scrambles, sub attempts both ways, and Dern's volume and top-tier jiu-jitsu carrying a competitive decision.

Blanchfield is younger (27 vs 37), higher-ranked (#4 vs #7) and the more dynamic fighter. She outputs a huge 5.24 significant strikes per minute and pairs it with a 36% submission rate and two recent RNC finishes. Jasudavicius brings size (5'7", 68" reach, a 2-inch reach edge) and solid wrestling at 2.6 takedowns per 15 at 46%, but at 37 she's coming off a Round 1 KO loss.

Jasudavicius's path is to use her frame, land at 60% accuracy, and grind with top control. But Blanchfield's grappling is more offensive — her 0.9 sub attempts per 15 and rear-naked-choke finishing threat make Jasmine's takedown-heavy game risky, as scrambles favor the sharper submission hunter.

The 10-year age gap and Blanchfield's finishing rate tilt this hard. Expect Erin to win exchanges, threaten off scrambles, and find a submission in the middle rounds.

Turner is the physical outlier — 6'3" with a monster 77" reach and an absurd 100% finish rate (11 KOs, 4 subs, zero decisions). He's all-or-nothing: 5.79 strikes per minute at 52%, a 73% KO rate, but a 63% win rate and a chin that's been cracked (KO'd in 2024, submitted in 2025).

Fernandes is shorter (5'9") but efficient and durable, landing 4.28 per minute at a strong 60% accuracy with a 55% KO rate and 85% win rate. His 100% takedown accuracy and 73% finish rate show real completeness. Turner's danger is early — first-round power — but he's fragile if the fight extends and can be timed.

This is coin-flip range given Turner's reach and one-shot power, but Fernandes's higher accuracy, better durability and cleaner recent form (three of four wins, all finishes or a decision) edge it. If Fernandes weathers the opening round, his precision and pressure crack the streaky Turner.

A big physical and age gap: Abdul-Malik is 28 with a towering 79.5" reach and a 100% career finish rate (7 KOs among 9 wins, 78% KO rate). Stoltzfus is the crafty veteran grappler — 6 subs, 2.1 takedowns per 15 at 38%, 38% sub rate — but at 34 he's dropped three of his last four, all to better competition.

Stoltzfus's only path is dragging Mansur down and hunting submissions off his back, and Abdul-Malik's takedown defense is untested (42% offensive TD, thin grappling data). But Mansur's striking output and finishing power are frightening, and Stoltzfus absorbs damage — he was KO'd by a spinning elbow in 2024.

Mansur is coming off a Round 3 KO loss, showing he can fade, but his power and 4.5-inch reach edge dictate the standup. If he keeps it upright, the finish comes. Stoltzfus can steal it on the mat, but that's the harder route.

Barboza is a legendary striker but 40 years old and reeling — three straight losses, including a Round 1 KO in December 2025. His 4.14 strikes per minute at 46% and 14 career KOs still command respect, and his 75" reach gives him a 6-inch edge over Ribovics's 69".

Ribovics is the fresher volume machine at 30, throwing a blistering 7.27 significant strikes per minute — nearly double Barboza's rate — though at just 45% accuracy. His 47% KO rate and 80% finish rate show pop, and his youth matters against a fading veteran on a losing skid.

Barboza's danger is timing and that still-dangerous right hand and wheel kick; one clean shot ends nights. But Ribovics's pace and durability should overwhelm the aging Barboza over three rounds. Volume and youth carry a decision, with a live chance Ribovics stops him late.

This is a mismatch of wrestling volume and age. Orolbai is 28 and lands a staggering 8.8 takedowns per 15 at 59% accuracy — elite output — plus a 60% striking accuracy and 81% finish rate. Wells is 39 with solid grappling of his own (3.1 takedowns per 15, 47%) but a low 2.35 strikes per minute output.

Wells's path is to land his own takedowns and hunt subs (1.3 attempts per 15), but giving up 11 years and facing a fighter who nearly triples his takedown rate is grim. Orolbai's only recent blemish is a 2024 split loss; he's won three straight since, including a Round 1 KO and a Kimura.

Orolbai's relentless takedown pressure and control should smother the aging Wells. He can win standing at 60% accuracy or on the mat. Decision most likely given Wells's toughness, with an outside submission finish.

Two aging power strikers who both live and die by the finish. Njokuani is 37 with a huge 80" reach and elite 66% striking accuracy, 5.16 per minute, 60% KO rate. Neal is 35, a southpaw with a 63% KO rate and 5.02 strikes per minute at 53%, but he's lost four of his last five, including two straight first-round KOs.

Both are vulnerable: Njokuani has dropped two straight (including a Round 1 sub), and Neal's chin is clearly compromised with back-to-back knockout losses. Neal's power and southpaw angles are a live threat, but the reach and accuracy edges belong to Chidi.

This is a coin flip with knockout potential either way. Njokuani's 5-inch reach advantage, superior accuracy and Neal's recent chin cracks nudge the pick. Whoever lands first likely ends it — the numbers favor Chidi landing first.

Luque is the far more accomplished fighter — 24-12-1 with an 88% finish rate, 11 KOs and 10 subs. He mixes 4.80 strikes per minute at 54% with a dangerous anaconda choke (three in recent fights). Gore is a raw 7-4 prospect with strong grappling — 73% takedown accuracy, 57% sub rate, all finishes — but limited experience over just 11 pro fights.

Gore's path is his wrestling and guillotine game; three of his wins are guillotine chokes, which is a real trap for a pressure fighter like Luque. But Luque's 42% sub rate and championship-level scrambling make him the more dangerous grappler, and Gore has been KO'd and out-pointed recently.

Luque's experience edge, finishing arsenal and superior striking should carry this. Expect him to hurt Gore standing and capitalize on the mat. Submission or TKO for the veteran, though Gore's guillotine is a genuine live threat early.

Magny is the durable, high-volume veteran — 31-15 with 46 pro fights, 3.40 strikes per minute at 60%, and 2.2 takedowns per 15. But at 38 he's been finished repeatedly lately, including three first-round losses (two KOs, one sub) in his last five. Brahimaj is a submission specialist: 12 of 13 wins by sub, a 92% sub rate, 1.6 attempts per 15.

Magny's reach (80" vs 72") and jab-and-clinch game can out-point Brahimaj over three rounds, and his experience is vast. But his recent susceptibility to submissions — an anaconda choke loss in December 2025 — is exactly Brahimaj's specialty, and Ramiz's guillotine finishes are a nightmare in scrambles and clinch entries.

This is close, but Magny's fading durability against a pure finisher tilts it. If Brahimaj gets to the clinch or the mat, his 92% sub rate ends it. Magny's path is distance striking, but recent history says he gets caught. Submission for Brahimaj.